MAY BE A WHILE FOR ANOTHER TRIPLE CROWN WINNER

Finally a triple crown winner and more like a quadruple crown winner when you throw in 
winning the Breeder's Cup classic.  The handicappers that have been around for a while will
defend the greats of their era, but we have to give American Pharaoh his due.  He beat the
best of  the competition in both his age bracket and against the best older horses.

My guess is that it my be another 20 years or so before we have another. Why?  Horses
today are bred for certain surfaces and distance than those years ago who were generally bred
using "breed the best to the best and expect the best".  So trainers save their horses for one or
two of the big races in quest for black type in the horse' breeding resume.  Much of what the
California Chrome connections complained of when their horse failed in the Belmont.  But
that's part of the game or should I say the business of racing.  It's all about money; thus why
good horses are retired so young.  Good for the bank accounts, bad for the racing world.
Ray Fox

Why Winning At The Races Has Become More Difficult

Why Has Winning Become More Difficult?

A considerable number of race  fans haven't picked up on the primary reason. The answer is quite obvious to seasoned handicappers and bettors; parity in horse racing. 

Before desk top and lap top computers became a common household amenity along with the new software programs, handicapping was done almost exclusively using  the Daily Racing Form.   Races were wide open targets for trainers entering their horses as mismatches.   In a $10K claiming  race, for example, you used to be able to find three or four horses that  were non-contenders and eligible throw outs.  The throw outs were either out classed, or very poor performers in races similar to today’s class. 

Well what happened that changed all of this?  Oddly enough, the same changes that were made to create parity in the NFL.  The NFL decided  to even the playing  field as much as possible.   In comparison, the same $10K claimer race that existed years ago longer exists, know that and remember that. 

Racing officials redefined the conditions for claiming races.  That once $10K open claimer was transformed into specific entry requirements.  As an example, races are now  restricted to non-winners of two races lifetime, non-winners of two races since a certain date, or non-winners of “other than”, non winners of x dollars except for, and so on.   So when wagering on restricted  races keep in mind that an even money favorite doesn't really have much better credentials than any of the others in the race thanks to parity in conditions. 

Look for a nice priced horse for your win selection in races with tight conditions.  Take your shot with a horse that will give you a nice return even if on a place or show bet with high odds. 

Ray Fox
Winner World Cup of Handicapping

NO SPACE FOR RACING'S BIGGEST DAY; BREEDERS CUP

Shame on the Sun Sentinel for the paltry space given to the Breeder's Cup in the November 3rd sports section.  An article regarding a jersey change at halftime got twice the space as the Breeder's Cup.  The Breeder's Cup, largest thoroughbred racing day the world over, is to racing fans what the Super Bowl and World Series is to football and baseball fans. One major difference, it is a world wide event.

The thoroughbred industry employs over 104,000 residents and generates over $5 billion annually to the State's economy.  Let's not forget the hundreds of thousands of race fans in Dade and Broward Counties alone who attend the races daily contributing millions to the State through tax take outs from pari-mutual purses. Florida has long been a stalwart in this Country for the racing industry, second only to Kentucky for breeding and deserves to be treated as such.

The Sun-Sentinel uses substantial space in its sports page for race results and entries.  That information is old news and outdated considering the significant information retrieval processes of current internet capable phones and what have you.
 
Thoroughbred racing, especially on its biggest day of the year, deserves a little more space than a tiny 2 columns buried at the bottom of page two wouldn't you agree? I alert you of these facts, not as a bettor of races, but as one who bred and raced in Florida for years. 
 
The Sun-Sentinel is a great newspaper, but for thoroughbred racing it's not reporting news, just yesterday's information that everyone has already seen.

Hope you consider what I've written and perhaps think about upgrading the racing section of your sports page to reflect racing in Florida to its proper perspective based upon interest in the sport.

Ray Fox

WWW.TURFRACE.NET
Racing's best numbers

IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS THEY WILL MAKE YOU WIN AT THE RACES

MONEY MANAGEMENTFor money management, use this as an approach.  Always wager 10% of your bankroll in each of the races you choose to bet.  That will ensure that when you are losing, the amount of your wagers are decreasing and when winning the amount of your wagers is increasing.  A very good rule of thumb for making sure your bankroll lasts the entire day.

WIN  MORE AND GAIN FLEXIBILITYConsider this when betting daily doubles. A significant amount of smart, or hidden money, is wagered in daily doubles rather than the win pool. In the doubles pool the public is less likely apt to find a horse being heavily bet.

Let's assume you are betting four $10 doubles, the #3 and #4 in the first half of your doubles bet with the #5 and #7 in the second half of the double.  That's a total cost of $40. Instead of betting those doubles bet $20 to win on the #3 horse and $20 on the #4 horse. If one wins, take the entire amount you are returned and bet half of it on the #5 and half on the #7, the same two horses that you were going to use in the second half of the double.

You'll be surprised how many times you will have collected more using the above approach than you would have betting it in doubles.  And here is the most important element.  You have the flexibility to put the money in your pocket should you decide you no longer like the #5 or #7 for that second half of the daily double.  There's no withdrawl option with double tickets once you buy them and win the first half.

There’s nothing more depressing than winning the first half of a daily double with a $40 winner only to lose in the second half.  Using my suggestion you have a very nice profit in your hand and can decide what you wish to do.  It’s a great position to be in at the races.

RAY FOX IS A PROFESSIONAL THOROUGHBRED HANDICAPPER FOR WWW.TURFRACE.NET AND THE AUTHOR OF RACING ARTICLES THAT HELP THOROUGHBRED RACING FANS NATIONWIDE WIN AT THE RACES.

WHAT MAKES 700 HANDICAPPERS CHOOSE TURFRACE.NET?

WHY FOX POWERS ARE SO POPULAR WITH 700 TURFRACE MEMBERS

Reading a racing form is very time consuming and unless you are a seasoned handicapper and can remember and understand all that you've read, then you need an alternative approach.  And there is an alternative that eliminates both time consumption and a lack of handicappingknow how. 

Ray Fox's Turfrace.net featuring Fox Powers puts all of the volume of information that you must read in a racing form into single powerful numbers without spending hours of time and work.  Fox Powers are  simple to use and understand for either the novice or the seasoned handicapper. 

Fox Powers are far less expensive plus the end result is the power ratings of Ray Fox winner of the World Cup of Handicapping and 5 time top ten finisher in national competition.  Why do it yourself???

RAY FOX IS A PROFESSIONAL THOROUGHBRED HANDICAPPER FOR WWW.TURFRACE.NET AND THE AUTHOR OF RACING ARTICLES THAT HELP THOROUGHBRED RACING FANS NATIONWIDE WIN AT THE RACES.

HANDICAPPING REMINDERS THAT WILL MAKE YOU A WINNER

Although most avid handicappers are already aware of these basic rules of thumb, but it's always a good idea for all of us to be reminded. So here are just a few of the things I try to always remember when betting.

Be very selective with the races you choose to bet. Although most bettors want to beat the chalk, is it a good idea to try and beat a very strong horse with one that you know to be inferior? Have a good reason for thinking you can beat a strong horse who is a deserving favorite. Don't rely on the fact that favorites lose 70% of the time. Skip that race, there are a many others to bet on where there isn't that much to beat.

Learn to accept the low price you have to take wagering on a real good horse. You won't go broke cashing those $4.60 winners.  For your value find a good double digit odds horse to put underneath that strong horse in exactas and trifectas.

Don't rely on closers getting to the line first as much as you would with one of the speed holding up. Closers usually find trouble somewhere in the race in addition to having to run down several speed horses, not just one. And the cheaper the race class, the worse it is to bet a big closer.

Don't be so quick to eliminate a good horse that has been laid up for a while. They are star athletes and can run well the first time back, especially in races where the other horses are mediocre. Good trainers rest good horses and don't place them in stiff competition after a lay off.  Don't assume the allowance horse who hasn't run in 70 days has been laying in his stall and eating all day. Laid up cheap claimers. on the other hand, raise a red flag. A lack of races, especially with a class drop, is a sign of an unhealthy horse

Use every advantage to you can to keep your money. The states are the big winners in every race with their steady take outs. Pick 3's and 4's are the best bets available since you get to bet multiple races with one take out. Avoid IRS reporting by buying $1 tickets instead of $2 tickets. And always buy 10 cent superfecta tickets, especially when using "alls" in one, or more, of the holes.

RAY FOX IS A PROFESSIONAL THOROUGHBRED HANDICAPPER FOR WWW.TURFRACE.NET AND THE AUTHOR OF RACING ARTICLES THAT HELP THOROUGHBRED RACING FANS NATIONWIDE WIN AT THE RACES.

THOROUGHBRED HANDICAPPING WITH FOX POWERS

A member asked me what regular approach I take each day when betting my Fox Powers.  Here is my personal approach to how I select horses to bet each day.  If you are currently betting with Fox Powers it may improve your $$$ performance at the races..

First, I select 2 tracks only for a day.  Everyone has favorite tracks so bet at the 2 tracks you like.  When there is a bad race at one of the 2 tracks, I go to the other track.  I bet about 14 races each day because there are usually, for various reasons, 5-6 races that put you at a large disadvantage.  The 5-6 races I eliminate because of too many unknowns are those with more than two 1st time starters. If one or both first timers are 5-1 or less I skip the race.

 When I first glance at the Fox Power race card, the first thing that catches my eye are horses with a double digit number in every category accross the board.  That horse is a strong horse no matter where in the Fox Power order it stands.

Next I look for horses with a very high total speed number and supporting factors to back it up such as, High E/S if a sprint, or a C for class drop, 3 or more LDR's and reasonable finishes in its last 4 races.  If a horse has not been in the $$$ in its last 4 races he has to have a "C" under alerts for a class drop, or I will not consider the horse. The consistency is very very important in the selection process.  Some horses run well almost always and some rarely finish in the money.

Then I focus on the top 4 Fox Powers since 65% of the time one of the top 3 win the race on average.  And 67% of the time the top Fox Power will be 1st, 2nd, or 3rd on average.

Then I look for any horse with a single outstanding high number in one of the categories that is high enough to make the horse win despite low numbers elswhere.  So always look for a horse with an LDR for a category that is a high early line odds horse.  For example, a horse with a 38 for ES in a 5F- 5 1/2 F race is a horse you must take seriously no matter where he is in the Fox Power ranking order.  If such a horse is a top 4 Fox Power you better take him very seriously.

Horses that run in the $$$ in 3 or all of its past 4 races are horses you can assume will likely repeat those performances.  They will usually be around the leaders at the finish line. Conversely, horses with bad last 4 finishes will probably finish up the track unless dropping in class.

As long as I can remember, closers have always prevailed in turf races over one mile, one mile being boarderline.  Using a speed horse on the grass is risky as one or more horses will probably press the pace and hurt the speed horse.  So make sure it is lone speed if you select a speed horse on grass.

Last, in cheap claiming races don't look for a closer to use as a key horse.  Cheap claiming horses don't close very often for the win position despite what you see in its past performances.  The E/S horse in a cheap race will give you many more winners than a closer.

All of the categories in the Fox Powers race card are very well explained. Try my method of selection with Fox Powers, I believe you will select more winners and win more often. 

RAY FOX IS A PROFESSIONAL THOROUGHBRED HANDICAPPER FOR WWW.TURFRACE.NET
AND AUTHOR OF THOROUGHBRED ARTICLES THAT HELP THOROUGHBRED RACING FANS NATIONWIDE.

WHAT YOU GET WITH WWW.TURFRACE.NET

Turfrace has grown very rapidly to over 700 members and for a reason; accurate detailed racing information.  My ultimate goal, naturally, is to make money.  But nothing excites me more than when my members have a big day along with me and write to me about their day.  

Turfrace is more of a club for members than a website selling racing reports.  There is no other racing website on the internet where you can ask a question, have a problem with an order, or just plain correspond with the handicapper, etc. and get an answer within an hour or two.  And from the guy in charge himself I might add. 

Many times I will take half an hour to answer a single handicapping question for a member.  Try getting that on another racing site?  They email you that they will get back to you in 24 hours and many times they never do. 

In the many years that Turfrace has been on the internet it has never had a single member payment dispute.  In fact, I often notify a member that he or she has mistakenly over paid or ordered twice.

Quite frequently I give free days.  And I do it for all members, including those that have never purchased a Turfrace product which is unfortunate for those members.  The reason, if you are betting the races, there is no more informative racing information anywhere than Fox Powers.

Believe it, or don't believe it, Ray Fox makes his living betting, not from selling Fox Powers on Turfrace.net.  There have been occasions when I have hit $25,000 supers on back to back days which makes selling Fox Powers kind of small.  Still, do I like selling Fox Powers for just $25.95 a month, not really.  Compared to the $5 a day for the DRF, they are far too inexpensive for the detail you get and the results.  Sorry, but if you can’t win with Fox Powers you have a problem with your methodology.

In an effort to get more members I added sports.  But I added the sports, for members and myself, only because I know I have access to someone's bets that is one of the best in the Country.  He's someone who is more than just proficient.  In six weeks he has yet to have a losing week in total.

Whether it's Turfrace or not, deal with sites that look at you as a person, a partner, not just some account number.

READ THE RACE CONDITIONS AND FIND WINNERS

Reading the conditions may find you an easy winner. Some of these races give you a low probability of winning your bet if your approach is not sound.


A. Two year old races. For lack of credible past performances and the fact that they are green. All horses have a birthday on January 1st no matter which month it was born. So a foal in January is a lot stronger and mature than one born in May. So check the month born if you bet two year old races.

B. Non winners of two lifetime. I see horses bet down to even money in a race that has never won a 2nd race yet. All have one win and in essence they are all equal unless there is a legitimate class drop. Otherwise, go for a high odds horse here. Or, consider betting a horse that has raced only once or twice as he hasn't proven himself a born loser yet where others may be 1 for 17, etc.. Avoid horses with 10 or more starts and only one win unless he is dropping at least 50% in class. For exotics think about an "All" on top in this type of race.

C. Turf races that have large fields and half having never run on the grass. Trainers experiment here. Don't let them do it with your money. Just when you think you have a winner, some first timer on turf decides he loves grass and destroys the field and the logical horse.

D. Claiming races for maidens. These are not bad races to bet if you are selective. Definitely lean towards any MSW running for a tag for the first time. I consider this the biggest class drop in racing and you had better also. Again, in maiden races avoid those with 10 or more starts and no win with the exception that he is dropping into easier company.

E. Claiming and Allowance races. Be careful deciding that a horse is dropping in class as he may not be. I hear handicappers saying I have to bet the class here, "this horse is dropping from $20K to $12K". But is he really dropping, or is he running where he should have been all along. A $20K horse who has consistently finished far up the track in all its races is not dropping. He has been running over his head and was never a $20K horse to begin with. Trainers and owners don't give away a $20K horse for $10K. Remember that every owner thinks his horse is better than it is and insists the trainer run it at a price he cannot compete. The same is true of a horse going from allowance to claiming. Is he dropping or is it that he never was an allowance horse to begin with. I recall a very consistant horse at Calder who could have won 15 allowance races. His owner refused to let the trainer run him in anything but stakes races. Such a shame, the horse was a very good allowance horse.

F. Starter handicaps. Great races to bet and easy ones to win. Again look at the conditions then look for and an improving horse over the last 4 or 5 races. If the conditions say a horse is eligible if it ran for $5K in the past xxx days he meets the conditions. And he is presently running well for $25K, you have a probable winner. You are getting a $25K horse competing against $5K horses. There may be more than one of these standouts so box them. A novice handicapper will probably base his selection on a horse that shows good races of late, but for $5K.

Using Fox Powers Categories For Handicapping

There are two ways a horse can earn points in Fox Powers.  First, all of the past performances of horses in the race are matched against each other.  The second way a horse earns points is by exceeding the minimum criteria I have established. 

The past performance numbers I use are derived from the data files of the DRF and Brisnet.  They are the same numbers you are using when reading any racing report from those two sources.  So my raw numbers do not originate from me, but are processed through my software program that has won me several titles. The basis of each horse's numbers were actually earned in races.

When you look at the categories you see some high numbers and low ones.  A zero does not indicate that the horse is bad in that category.  It means that the horse has not accomplished anything that exceeds the ordinary or doesn't stack up well against his competition in that particular area.  Are they always right on?  Of course not, it's horse racing and the human element cannot be inserted into the numbers.  Add to that, trainers trying different running styles for horses that have not been running well.  So let's take a closer look at the categories I use on my Fox Powers race cards.

Early and Late Speed: 
These are accurate as they include numbers from past 4 races for 2F speed, 4F speed, horses who led into the stretch, faded, and going a shorter distance today. The Late Speed number is based on similar factors with points awarded for their late running.  Again, the zero does not indicate bad, the horse is just not as good as those earning points.  A horse with numbers in early and late speed is a horse with tactical speed and stretch punch. It is capable of running in either fashion depending on the type of competition he's running against today.

Total Speed:  This number has the most entries by me of any category.  It is a horse's condensed speed start to finish.  There are 13 entries in this number, and again horse vs horse plus exceeding criteria settings earns points.  My criteria settings are set at 5 or more above the class and track pars.  Pars are established by organizations that analyze hundreds of thousands of races similar to today's type of race and distance.  And again it's horseracing but, a high number indicates he has run very fast in the past few races.

Total Class: 
Here I compare, average purses for each horse, ave earnings per start, races in the money at a higher class than today, horses dropping in class, MSW horses going into maiden claiming for the first time and the average of  a horse's finishes for its past 5 races.

Turf:  This number is derived from a horse's actual grass races.  There are some non-grass numbers included such as the J/T input for riding and training for grass.  Although it is not Tomlinson, it is a solid number you can use as stand alone.  Where Tomlinson focuses on breeding, I prefer to focus on a horse's actual performance on the turf. There are points, however, in my turf number for grass bloodlines.

Jockey/Trainer:  This number has every conceivable input for showing actual success or lack of success.  It is also heavily weighted for a change any jockey or trainer to another that has much better racing success.  Pay attention to lesser known jocky's and trainers that have a very high numbers.  They are often overlooked and throw off nice mutual prices.  A very high number indicates a very good J/T combination that you should respect.  The top jockey's and trainers get the best horses.

Alerts: 
They speak for themselves.  You will get a lot of winners playing just the alerts, many being double digit priced winners.  Anyone not using the alerts is making a large mistake for sure.

Days Since Last Race:  As I have always stated, a claimer laid up spells trouble.  An allowance or stakes horse is able to lay off 200 days, or more, and a good trainer will have him ready to run.  Don't be so quick to bite on the "he may need one".  Trainers don't waste races with tuneups on good horses.  They want to win their 10%.

Prime Power vs Fox Power:  No match here.  Fox Powers are 34% winners with its top choice and Prime Power is at 28%.  Fox Power average winning mutual is $7.28 and Prime Power is $5.76.  I recommend using the Prime Power in just two ways.  First, if it is 7 or more higher than the second highest Prime Power, or if the Prime Power matches the Fox Power as the top selection.  But I provide it as a "second opinion".

Win Pct, IT$ Pct and Ave ernings: Are what they are.  Sometimes they are good numbers and sometimes not.  But a horse with 4 first and second place finishes in its last four racescoupled with the highest ave earnings will usually be a good bet, more so with a top J/T combination.

LDR's:  Indicates a horse leads in that many of my categories.  Needless to say a LDR of 4, or higher, is a pretty strong horse, win or lose.

Fox Power:  The overall rating of each horse using 37 factors for earning points and based upon actual past performances.  There is no guessing on my part here .

Wet Track: 
This shows whether a horse runs well on an off track or does not.  These numbers give you number of starts on an off track and the number of 1st and 2nd place finishes on the off track.  Be sure to also use it when races are taken off the grass for rain.

Finally, be assured that my numbers produce good results and are among the very best out there.  Some of you will do better than others, especially those that handicap using the categories along with the top Fox Powers. Just one very outstanding number may be enough for a win, learn to spot them.  If you see a horse with an E/S of 40 and no other has over 20 and is running in a sprint?  Fire away at 20-1 and you'll surprise yourself once in a while.

We can't win every day we bet and horse's don't always run according to their numbers.  They can't talk when they are ailing and we don't know the trainer's intentions.  But stick with the Fox Powers as they are the best chance of winning more and more often.  Play your instincts, racing is the only betting, aside from lotteries, where you can win just once and leave with a full pocket of $$$$.

Look For Angles That Produce Winners In Fox Powers Cards

 Conservatively speaking, I probably could fill two notebooks with horse racing systems I wrote, most of which worked quite well. So the next time you hear systems can't work you can disagree. Systems that are constructed with sound principles are a step in the right direction to many good days at the races. And systems are definitely the approach for those lacking handicapping knowledge.

At the conclusion of each day's races, I post the races under "free and past tracks". Use those races to research combinations of various Fox Powers categories in a system. You will find one that will work, trust me. Then stick with it day in and day out. In doing so, keep in mind that no one wins every day.

In your observations you may discover that horses with a total speed figure of 40, or more, and a top three Fox Powers ranking, are winning at a high percentage. Or you may discover that horses are winning that have the two highest of speed, class or consistency. So try out a few on the practice range. You just may find a world beater.

As an example, let's assume that in reviewing the races for a track, you find that one of the three highest total speed horses is winning a great percentage of the races. Next you find that of the top three highest speeds, the one with the highest class is winning the most of the three high speeds.

Or, it could be the high speed horse with the most early speed, or consistency, etc.

If you favor class and you find that one of the horses with the three highest class numbers are prevailing, you could develop a system using the three highest class horses as a basis. A system that I feel would be exceptionally good would be based upon selecting from the three highest Fox Powers and choosing the horse with the highest speed, or the highest class.

WHY HAS WINNING AT THE RACES BECOME MORE DIFFICULT

Although a considerable number of thoroughbred racing fans haven't yet picked up on the primary reason for the article title, the answer is quite obvious to seasoned handicappers; welcome parity in horse racing.  Years ago, before computers became a common household amenity, handicapping was done almost exclusively reading the Daily Racing Form for hours. Races were wide open for smart trainers entering their horses in races where the horse was far superior to the field.  And they dared someone to claim their 6 year old. 

In a $10K claiming race, for example, you could usually find three or four horses that were non-contenders rendering them ineligible from further consideration. Such horses were either out classed or proven poor performers in races similar to today's race. So what did happen?  Oddly enough, the same leveling of the playing field made in the NFL and NBA to create parity has occurred in racing.  The NFL and the NBA created salary caps and giving the top draft picks to teams with the worst records for the current year.

In comparison, the $10K claimer that existed years ago is no longer that same 10K race. Racingsecretaries redefined the conditions for most types of claiming races. That once 10K open claimer was transformed into tightly defined conditions.  As an example, races were changed to make them as near to equal as possible.  For example, each horse in a defined race had to be a non-winner of two races lifetime, or a non-winner of two races since a certain date, or a non-winner of two races this year and so on.

So when wagering on claiming races keep in mind that an even money favorite doesn't really have much better credentials than any of the other horses in the race.  The conditions make the all close to equal.  In that case look for the best recent form or improving finishes of late.  Look for a nice priced horse as your win selection as an even money favorite in a very evenly matched field borders on rediculous.

The place to find races where fields are not evenly matched, and having standouts in them, is starter handicaps and starter allowances.  The conditions allow for a horse to be eligible based on races a few months back.  So look for the horse that improved substantially over his races he ran back a month or two ago.  Smart trainers see these spots very easily now days.

Ray Fox

www.turfrace.net

Turfrace Category Numbers Detailed

I, personally, prefer to use the category numbers in addition to the top Fox Powers.  The numbers I give the most attention after the top Fox Powers numbers are E/S, L/S, total speed and last 4 finishes.

I look at E/S and L/S a little diferently.  If a horse has 38 or higher for E/S and is a top Fox Power he gets my attention particuarly in a sprint race.  If that horse is near the bottom of the Fox Powers he does not.  Although I have seen several of the win and pay over $50, but not often enough to try making a living with them.

I look at L/S differently.  If a horse has a 38 or higher, I could care less where he is in the Fox Powers.  Don't take it the wrong way, a higher Fox Power is better, but any horse with 38 for L/S regardless of the odds and Fox Power ranking should always be on your exotics tickets.

For total speed when I see 70 or higher, and it is a top 3 Fox Power which usually will be, I don't look much further for my top horse.

Here's my take on the horse's last 4 finishes, which I feel has been a great addition to Fox Powers.  As all of you know I have been a class bettor as long as I have handicapped the races.  I've had to lighten up on class because of slot machines.  Class is no longer a single figure that you can hang your hat on.  So the last 4 finishes are important for consistency reasons.  On Belmont day, in the 12th race I picked Tasor as the value play.  He was 2nd at 18-1 behind the top Fox Power making a very nice exacta.  I listed him as a value play only because he had two wins and a 2nd in his last 4 races.

If you aren't using the category numbers you should, especially for those standout numbers I mentioned above.  Remember that the Fox Power is a horse's OVERALL rating.  So look for that single number that will give you a nice priced winner.

Ray Fox Speaks Out Again!!

What's More Difficult?
I don't think there's any question that putting the numbers in the right place is more difficult than handicapping the race itself.  Stop and think about it, I think you will agree.  Take just 5 horses and figure how many combinations there are vs one winning combination.

Parity In Horse Racing
Here I go again with the parity in racing bit.  Lately, I am a believer that it should be even increased.  Racing is becoming so saturated with odds-on chalk that if you can't find a couple of 12 to 15/1's to pair with the chalk,  you can't bet the race as there is no value.  This is especially true at Aqueduct, however the track I feel offers the most in the way of consistancy.

I would be in favor of tightening the condition much more so that every horse is so equal to another that it appears impossible to pick the winner.  Then, and only then, will you get even betting thus eliminating the over classed standouts in races that are going to post at 2/5 odds leaving the next favorite at 10-1.

As each of you know my rule for my Best Bets report is that I post no selection under 2-1 ML odds.  And still they pay less than even money which is why I wrote the article on the bad job that I think the track handicappers are doing.  The prices that my highest Fox Power winner pays is consistantly about 50% of the ML.  Track handicappers need to get real.  We all know we're not getting those silly ML odds you post.

TRACK HANDICAPPERS ???

TRACK HANDICAPPERS NEED TO
 GET REAL WITH THEIR M/L ODDS
Think Ray Fox picks a lot of favorites?  Well think again, or better yet look at the M/L and then check the off price of my selection.  Almost 100% of the time my top horse goes off at odds far less than the M/L set by the track handicappers.

Don't get fooled into thinking a horse is a big "bet down" or an underlay.  Fact of the matter is that track handicappers are in left field with their M/L odds they post.  I'm not criticizing their order of how they like the horses, but they are fantasizing if they really believe horses will get off anywhere near their M/L.  And it isn't just the top horse but several in each race.

I've had best picks listed at 12-1 and win and pay less than 5-2, not just once, but many times.  So the mutual on Fox Power winners may look like a big favorite was selected, but take a look at the too high M/L.  As for my Best Bets report, I never post any selection under 2-1 M/L.  And they end up paying $3 or less to win.  Too bad the track handicappers won't post the real odds that one can expect at post time.
Ray Fox professional thoroughbred handicapper at http://www.turfrace.net/

DAILY DOUBLES; A BAD BET

Flexibility is always worth some price.  Betting daily doubles eliminates that completely.  Once you bet a double you are at the mercy of the 2nd half of the ticket.  Win the first half and decide you aren't as crazy about the horse you need to win as you were?  Too bad you're stuck with it.  Another horse is getting pounded down and it looks legit; too bad.  Last minute change to a lesser jockey on your horse or the weather suddenly goes bad; again too bad, can't change your selection.

Nothing can be worse than to win the first half of a daily double with a $30 plus horse and be sitting there knowing if the 2nd half horse doesn't win, you have nothing to show for a good pick in the first half.

What does Ray Fox do?  I can't remember the last time I ever bet a double.  Let's assume I was going to bet $25 doubles with #1 and #2 in the first half and #3 and #4 in the second half which costs $100.  Instead I bet $50 to win each on #1 and #2.  Let's assume we get that $30 winner.  I collect $375 and leave myself with at least 3 options as opposed to none.  First, I can decide to put the money in my pocket and will have made a $275 profit.  Second, I can take my $100 investment out and bet the $275 evenly, or proportionately by odds, on the #3 and #4.  Third, I might want to bet exotics with a safer bet knowing I can win more and not lose all of what I made with that nice winner.  There are many other options available to make sure you get some return rather than none.

Capitalize on the flexibilty of cashing a ticket on that horse you won with in that first half double.  Don't be that bettor with a $30 winner watching the 2nd half horse finish up the track, or losing a close one.  And then losing $100 for doing some good work.

visit Ray Fox and http://www.turfrace.net/ for the best in racing information.

HOW ARE MY FOX POWERS RATINGS DERIVED

As a user of Fox Powers you should know the basis of how I arrive at each horse’s overall Fox Powers rating as well as his individual numbers in the categories.

First, and foremost all of the numbers for my Fox Powers reports are taken from the data files of Brisnet and the Daily Racing Form. They are factual past performance numbers; no guessing is involved. They are from the same information you see in those two sources. So if a number looks out of whack, keep in mind the horse earned it, Ray Fox didn’t create it..

There are two ways a horse earns his Fox Powers points from 37 categories:

1) I pit horse against horse in very many of the categories. The horses that have best past performance numbers get the most points for today’s race.

2) I set criteria based on the pars achieved by winning horses ran at today’s class and distance. A horse must meet the criteria set to get these additional points. Meeting the criteria for a category is based upon an exceptional performance in one or more of a horse’s most recent races.

Many times a horse with very high numbers doesn’t win. Intangibles play a great part in the outcomes of races. So a good number that doesn’t run well can be a result of a bad ride, trouble, a mediocre jockey misjudging pace, or a horse that doesn’t feel well. We even have those days but we’re able to tell someone.

So numbers are numbers and that’s what we must base are betting decisions on. So as they may go array occasionally it’s the best we have to go by.

Good Racing Luck !!! to all Turfrace.net members

DON'T LOSE YOUR BET BEFORE THE RACE IS RUN!!

On Turfrace I post the major tracks that are operating each day.  And whether you go to the race track, or bet at home, simulcast is available to you.  That means you have a large selection of races to choose from for betting.  So why not bet races that give you your best chance of winning.  And I remind Turfrace members that you may find a winner just by reading the conditions of the race and using it to your advantage.

Let's review some races to give you a better feel for what I am saying.  Some of these races give you the lowest probability of winning your bet if your approach is not sound.

A.  Two year old races.  For lack of credible past performances and the fact that they are green.   All horses have a birthday on January 1st no matter which month it was born.  So a foal in January is a lot stronger and mature than one born in May.  So check the month born if you bet two year old races.

B.  Non winners of two lifetime.  I see horses bet down to even money in a race that has never won a 2nd race yet.  All have one win and in essence they are all equal unless there is a legitimate class drop.  Otherwise, go for a high odds horse here.  Or, consider betting a horse that has raced only once or twice as he hasn't proven himself a born loser yet where others may be 1 for 17, etc..  Avoid horses with 10 or more starts and only one win unless he is dropping at least 50% in class.  For exotics think about an "All" on top in this type of race.

C.  Turf races that have large fields and half having never run on the grass.  Trainers experiment here.  Don't let them do it with your money.  Just when you think you have a winner, some first timer on turf decides he loves grass and destroys the field and the logical horse.

D.  Claiming races for maidens.  These are not bad races to bet if you are selective.  Definitely lean towards any MSW running for a tag for the first time.  I consider this the biggest class drop in racing and you had better also.  Again, in maiden races avoid those with 10 or more starts and no win with the exception that he is dropping into easier company.

E.  Claiming and Allowance races.  Be careful deciding that a horse is dropping in class as he may not be.  I hear handicappers saying I have to bet the class here, "this horse is dropping from $20K to $12K".  But is he really dropping, or is he running where he should have been all along.  A $20K horse who has consistently finished far up the track in all its races is not dropping.  He has been running over his head and was never a $20K horse to begin with.  Trainers and owners don't give away a $20K horse for $10K.   Remember that every owner thinks his horse is better than it is and insists the trainer run it at a price he cannot compete.

The same is true of a horse going from allowance to claiming.  Is he dropping or is it that he never was an allowance horse to begin with.  I recall a very consistant horse at Calder who could have won 15 allowance races.  His owner refused to let the trainer run him in anything but stakes races.  Such a shame, the horse   was a very good allowance horse.

F.  Starter handicaps.  Great races to bet and easy ones to win.  Again look at the conditions then look for and an improving horse over the last 4 or 5 races.  If the conditions say a horse is eligible if it ran for $5K in the past xxx days he meets the conditions.  And he is presently running well for $25K, you have a probable winner.  You are getting a $25K horse competing against $5K horses.  There may be more than one of these standouts so box them.  A novice handicapper will probably base his selection on a horse that
show good races of late, but for $5K.

So always read the race conditions and use them to your advantage.  Looking at what horses are allowed to be entered will help you win more and more often.  Trainers are smart, they enter a horse where it has an advantage over competition.  Remember he gets 10% of the winner's purse.

Ray Fox
www.turfrace.net

Do You Change Your Mind

DO YOU CHANGE YOUR TICKETS?

Some good advice for those of you that make a last minute change, and no one is more guilty of it than me.  If you decide at a last minute to change a selection, it's like BLACK MAGIC.  The change leads to disaster almost every time.  You can almost count on it.

On Friday I was about to bet a superfecta at an off'shore site.  I was watching TVG at the time and listened one of their their "analysts" critique a race.  When you watch TVG look at them as entertainers than handicappers.  He kept talking and talking about the 8 horse.  I decided to take a look at my numbers and he did have the highest class and was taking money from 12-1 to 6-1.  So I removed the 9 horse from the top spot and put the 8 on top with 3 other horses.  You guessed it, the 8 didn't hit the board and the 9 horse won at 18-1.  I always mute those "analysts" and why I didn't, I don't know.  Make a long story short I threw away a $15,861 super payoff. 

MORAL OF THE STORY; DO AS I SAY NOT AS I DO.  NEVER CHANGE A TICKET, JUST ADD TO IT AND PAY THE EXTRA $$$ OR MOST OF THE TIME YOU WILL PAY DEARLY.

THOROUGHBRED RACING; A DYING INDUSTRY ?

Frank Sinatra recorded a beautiful holiday song that most have never heard because the classics are the most played.  The song was Whatever Happened To Christmas. Frank sings "it's gone and left no traces".  Racing fans across America may soon be asking that same question of  thoroughbred racing.  The once upon a time glamour of colorful silks and exciting stretch runs no longer there to enjoy. 
   
A vital ingredient to any sport is, and has been, missing from the racing recipe for some time now. An ingredient that all sports needs to succeed; charisma.  To witness what charisma can do, race fans only need to revert back to the late 70's and 80's when racing had not one but, dozens of super stars racing in the same time period.  Racing had the Seattle Slew's, the Affirmed's, the Spectacular Bid'sZenyatta and nine tear olds like John Henry beating up on the youngsters.  We watched great match races and major stakes races filled with super stars.  During that same time period other sports thrived through its super stars.

Golf had its crowd pleasers such as Palmer, Nicklaus, Floyd, Player, etc.  Then Tiger appeared and golf took on an appearance quite similar to racing; a sort of single super star, but one that made golf prosper.  Thoroughbred owners don’t race a single super star choosing instead to retire a star as three year old.  Golf on the other hand has the senior tour and super senior tour.  What racing is left with today is a sparse list of champion thoroughbreds competing during a same time period.

Thoroughbred racing is a very large national industry, one much larger than most people realize and one that legislators have over the years failed to realize as such.  Those of us that do realize this wonder how much longer legislators will continue to ignore the issues or choose to further abuse something so vital to the economy.  It appears that the individuals in position to do something about racing’s growing problems seem only to concern themselves with how next to extract more from racing.  States that are badly in need of revenue, in my opinion, pilferage the industry with little concern for those that make the wheel go around; the public. 


The federal government, with its outdated tax codes, continues to drive investors away from the sport.  Owners and breeders get little in the way of tax incentives aimed at luring new and retaining current investors.  That reluctance to modify tax codes in turn hurts the thousands of providers of products and services to the racing industry.  And let’s least not forget the public.  The public, for the most part is, and has been, left out of any consideration or input into racing issues.  But the public is always included as a victim of legislative sins committed by governmental bodies that are inept, or lack any knowledge of what thoroughbred racing contributes.

I, personally, have been involved in every facet of racing for 50 years, save riding and training.  I bred thoroughbreds at Gainsway Farm in Lexington and raced thoroughbreds in three states.  I eventually exited the owner/breeder segment of racing when the federal government decided that stud fees had to be capitalized instead of allowing it to be treated as an up front expense.   When the maximum tax rate for individuals was set at 50%, tax treatments such as that caused many investors to exit the racing scene.

New tracks have opened in the past ten years while old established race tracks fight for survival causing further saturation of supply with decreasing demand.  Most tracks no longer operate on Monday's, Tuesday's and Wednesday’s and the major race tracks can't fill their race cards. Bettors stay at home and wager with off shore facilities that commonly pay a 7% to 10% rebate on the amount wagered.  Yes, you read it correctly, on the amount wagered, win or lose.

So naturally, what is our government’s answer to the problem?  Chase down the off shore facilities rather than taking a competitive approach of giving the public something similar.  As a start the ridiculous regulation of the 300-1 tax signing requirement when a bettor makes a wager with his after tax dollars and 27% to 30% that is extracted from the pari-mutual pool prior to a race. Oddly enough, in spite of the latter, it is common to hear sports betting enthusiasts talk about how you can’t overcome a 10% vig charged by bookmakers.  Why don’t the various governments become competitors, in some manner, rather than spending all of their time to extricate their opposition?  Most of the tracks that are presently operating are fighting for their very existence

Sadly enough, it has always been take, take, take when it comes to anything involving the thoroughbred racing industry.  In my home state of Florida I have watched the demise of great racing stables and beautiful historic race tracks such as Hialeah Park (soon to become what else, a casino).  I often wonder if Tallahassee has even a clue that next to the citrus industry, thoroughbred racing coupled with all of its associated products and services is the second largest employer in the state.

To illustrate how ridiculous tax codes are, I recently cashed a $2 superfecta ticket that returned $854.  I had to go to the IRS window to cash the ticket.  Now an experienced person such as myself knows better than to buy a $2 ticket instead of two $1 tickets or even ten cent tickets.  But why make a person sign an IRS form and report the winnings when another person that won the same bet on two, or even ten $1 tickets did not?

Isn't it time the state and federal governments get real?  Casino's, who were supposed to help racing with larger purses appear to more than likely be aiding the ruination.  The casino legislative objective of raising purses that was in turn supposed to attract investors for breeding and racing has not done much at all, i.e. 5 and 6 horse fields everywhere.  So why hasn’t it helped?  Because the cost of boarding, training and transporting horses has gone through the roof at the same or greater pace of the increased purses.  The racing industry's battle for existence doesn't end with competition from the casinos and inept legislators.  Also drawing blood are scratch off tickets, multi-state lotteries, intrastate lotteries and illegal sports betting.  And like Cher sang, “and the beat goes on”.  Thoroughbred racing needs immediate attention because the band aids being applied can no longer contain the bleeding.


RAY FOX
http://www.turfrace.net/