There are two ways a horse can earn points in Fox Powers. First, all of the past performances of horses in the race are matched against each other. The second way a horse earns points is by exceeding the minimum criteria I have established.
The past performance numbers I use are derived from the data files of the DRF and Brisnet. They are the same numbers you are using when reading any racing report from those two sources. So my raw numbers do not originate from me, but are processed through my software program that has won me several titles. The basis of each horse's numbers were actually earned in races.
When you look at the categories you see some high numbers and low ones. A zero does not indicate that the horse is bad in that category. It means that the horse has not accomplished anything that exceeds the ordinary or doesn't stack up well against his competition in that particular area. Are they always right on? Of course not, it's horse racing and the human element cannot be inserted into the numbers. Add to that, trainers trying different running styles for horses that have not been running well. So let's take a closer look at the categories I use on my Fox Powers race cards.
Early and Late Speed:
These are accurate as they include numbers from past 4 races for 2F speed, 4F speed, horses who led into the stretch, faded, and going a shorter distance today. The Late Speed number is based on similar factors with points awarded for their late running. Again, the zero does not indicate bad, the horse is just not as good as those earning points. A horse with numbers in early and late speed is a horse with tactical speed and stretch punch. It is capable of running in either fashion depending on the type of competition he's running against today.
Total Speed: This number has the most entries by me of any category. It is a horse's condensed speed start to finish. There are 13 entries in this number, and again horse vs horse plus exceeding criteria settings earns points. My criteria settings are set at 5 or more above the class and track pars. Pars are established by organizations that analyze hundreds of thousands of races similar to today's type of race and distance. And again it's horseracing but, a high number indicates he has run very fast in the past few races.
Total Class:
Here I compare, average purses for each horse, ave earnings per start, races in the money at a higher class than today, horses dropping in class, MSW horses going into maiden claiming for the first time and the average of a horse's finishes for its past 5 races.
Turf: This number is derived from a horse's actual grass races. There are some non-grass numbers included such as the J/T input for riding and training for grass. Although it is not Tomlinson, it is a solid number you can use as stand alone. Where Tomlinson focuses on breeding, I prefer to focus on a horse's actual performance on the turf. There are points, however, in my turf number for grass bloodlines.
Jockey/Trainer: This number has every conceivable input for showing actual success or lack of success. It is also heavily weighted for a change any jockey or trainer to another that has much better racing success. Pay attention to lesser known jocky's and trainers that have a very high numbers. They are often overlooked and throw off nice mutual prices. A very high number indicates a very good J/T combination that you should respect. The top jockey's and trainers get the best horses.
Alerts:
They speak for themselves. You will get a lot of winners playing just the alerts, many being double digit priced winners. Anyone not using the alerts is making a large mistake for sure.
Days Since Last Race: As I have always stated, a claimer laid up spells trouble. An allowance or stakes horse is able to lay off 200 days, or more, and a good trainer will have him ready to run. Don't be so quick to bite on the "he may need one". Trainers don't waste races with tuneups on good horses. They want to win their 10%.
Prime Power vs Fox Power: No match here. Fox Powers are 34% winners with its top choice and Prime Power is at 28%. Fox Power average winning mutual is $7.28 and Prime Power is $5.76. I recommend using the Prime Power in just two ways. First, if it is 7 or more higher than the second highest Prime Power, or if the Prime Power matches the Fox Power as the top selection. But I provide it as a "second opinion".
Win Pct, IT$ Pct and Ave ernings: Are what they are. Sometimes they are good numbers and sometimes not. But a horse with 4 first and second place finishes in its last four racescoupled with the highest ave earnings will usually be a good bet, more so with a top J/T combination.
LDR's: Indicates a horse leads in that many of my categories. Needless to say a LDR of 4, or higher, is a pretty strong horse, win or lose.
Fox Power: The overall rating of each horse using 37 factors for earning points and based upon actual past performances. There is no guessing on my part here .
Wet Track:
This shows whether a horse runs well on an off track or does not. These numbers give you number of starts on an off track and the number of 1st and 2nd place finishes on the off track. Be sure to also use it when races are taken off the grass for rain.
Finally, be assured that my numbers produce good results and are among the very best out there. Some of you will do better than others, especially those that handicap using the categories along with the top Fox Powers. Just one very outstanding number may be enough for a win, learn to spot them. If you see a horse with an E/S of 40 and no other has over 20 and is running in a sprint? Fire away at 20-1 and you'll surprise yourself once in a while.
We can't win every day we bet and horse's don't always run according to their numbers. They can't talk when they are ailing and we don't know the trainer's intentions. But stick with the Fox Powers as they are the best chance of winning more and more often. Play your instincts, racing is the only betting, aside from lotteries, where you can win just once and leave with a full pocket of $$$$.
