READ THE RACE CONDITIONS AND FIND WINNERS

Reading the conditions may find you an easy winner. Some of these races give you a low probability of winning your bet if your approach is not sound.


A. Two year old races. For lack of credible past performances and the fact that they are green. All horses have a birthday on January 1st no matter which month it was born. So a foal in January is a lot stronger and mature than one born in May. So check the month born if you bet two year old races.

B. Non winners of two lifetime. I see horses bet down to even money in a race that has never won a 2nd race yet. All have one win and in essence they are all equal unless there is a legitimate class drop. Otherwise, go for a high odds horse here. Or, consider betting a horse that has raced only once or twice as he hasn't proven himself a born loser yet where others may be 1 for 17, etc.. Avoid horses with 10 or more starts and only one win unless he is dropping at least 50% in class. For exotics think about an "All" on top in this type of race.

C. Turf races that have large fields and half having never run on the grass. Trainers experiment here. Don't let them do it with your money. Just when you think you have a winner, some first timer on turf decides he loves grass and destroys the field and the logical horse.

D. Claiming races for maidens. These are not bad races to bet if you are selective. Definitely lean towards any MSW running for a tag for the first time. I consider this the biggest class drop in racing and you had better also. Again, in maiden races avoid those with 10 or more starts and no win with the exception that he is dropping into easier company.

E. Claiming and Allowance races. Be careful deciding that a horse is dropping in class as he may not be. I hear handicappers saying I have to bet the class here, "this horse is dropping from $20K to $12K". But is he really dropping, or is he running where he should have been all along. A $20K horse who has consistently finished far up the track in all its races is not dropping. He has been running over his head and was never a $20K horse to begin with. Trainers and owners don't give away a $20K horse for $10K. Remember that every owner thinks his horse is better than it is and insists the trainer run it at a price he cannot compete. The same is true of a horse going from allowance to claiming. Is he dropping or is it that he never was an allowance horse to begin with. I recall a very consistant horse at Calder who could have won 15 allowance races. His owner refused to let the trainer run him in anything but stakes races. Such a shame, the horse was a very good allowance horse.

F. Starter handicaps. Great races to bet and easy ones to win. Again look at the conditions then look for and an improving horse over the last 4 or 5 races. If the conditions say a horse is eligible if it ran for $5K in the past xxx days he meets the conditions. And he is presently running well for $25K, you have a probable winner. You are getting a $25K horse competing against $5K horses. There may be more than one of these standouts so box them. A novice handicapper will probably base his selection on a horse that shows good races of late, but for $5K.

Using Fox Powers Categories For Handicapping

There are two ways a horse can earn points in Fox Powers.  First, all of the past performances of horses in the race are matched against each other.  The second way a horse earns points is by exceeding the minimum criteria I have established. 

The past performance numbers I use are derived from the data files of the DRF and Brisnet.  They are the same numbers you are using when reading any racing report from those two sources.  So my raw numbers do not originate from me, but are processed through my software program that has won me several titles. The basis of each horse's numbers were actually earned in races.

When you look at the categories you see some high numbers and low ones.  A zero does not indicate that the horse is bad in that category.  It means that the horse has not accomplished anything that exceeds the ordinary or doesn't stack up well against his competition in that particular area.  Are they always right on?  Of course not, it's horse racing and the human element cannot be inserted into the numbers.  Add to that, trainers trying different running styles for horses that have not been running well.  So let's take a closer look at the categories I use on my Fox Powers race cards.

Early and Late Speed: 
These are accurate as they include numbers from past 4 races for 2F speed, 4F speed, horses who led into the stretch, faded, and going a shorter distance today. The Late Speed number is based on similar factors with points awarded for their late running.  Again, the zero does not indicate bad, the horse is just not as good as those earning points.  A horse with numbers in early and late speed is a horse with tactical speed and stretch punch. It is capable of running in either fashion depending on the type of competition he's running against today.

Total Speed:  This number has the most entries by me of any category.  It is a horse's condensed speed start to finish.  There are 13 entries in this number, and again horse vs horse plus exceeding criteria settings earns points.  My criteria settings are set at 5 or more above the class and track pars.  Pars are established by organizations that analyze hundreds of thousands of races similar to today's type of race and distance.  And again it's horseracing but, a high number indicates he has run very fast in the past few races.

Total Class: 
Here I compare, average purses for each horse, ave earnings per start, races in the money at a higher class than today, horses dropping in class, MSW horses going into maiden claiming for the first time and the average of  a horse's finishes for its past 5 races.

Turf:  This number is derived from a horse's actual grass races.  There are some non-grass numbers included such as the J/T input for riding and training for grass.  Although it is not Tomlinson, it is a solid number you can use as stand alone.  Where Tomlinson focuses on breeding, I prefer to focus on a horse's actual performance on the turf. There are points, however, in my turf number for grass bloodlines.

Jockey/Trainer:  This number has every conceivable input for showing actual success or lack of success.  It is also heavily weighted for a change any jockey or trainer to another that has much better racing success.  Pay attention to lesser known jocky's and trainers that have a very high numbers.  They are often overlooked and throw off nice mutual prices.  A very high number indicates a very good J/T combination that you should respect.  The top jockey's and trainers get the best horses.

Alerts: 
They speak for themselves.  You will get a lot of winners playing just the alerts, many being double digit priced winners.  Anyone not using the alerts is making a large mistake for sure.

Days Since Last Race:  As I have always stated, a claimer laid up spells trouble.  An allowance or stakes horse is able to lay off 200 days, or more, and a good trainer will have him ready to run.  Don't be so quick to bite on the "he may need one".  Trainers don't waste races with tuneups on good horses.  They want to win their 10%.

Prime Power vs Fox Power:  No match here.  Fox Powers are 34% winners with its top choice and Prime Power is at 28%.  Fox Power average winning mutual is $7.28 and Prime Power is $5.76.  I recommend using the Prime Power in just two ways.  First, if it is 7 or more higher than the second highest Prime Power, or if the Prime Power matches the Fox Power as the top selection.  But I provide it as a "second opinion".

Win Pct, IT$ Pct and Ave ernings: Are what they are.  Sometimes they are good numbers and sometimes not.  But a horse with 4 first and second place finishes in its last four racescoupled with the highest ave earnings will usually be a good bet, more so with a top J/T combination.

LDR's:  Indicates a horse leads in that many of my categories.  Needless to say a LDR of 4, or higher, is a pretty strong horse, win or lose.

Fox Power:  The overall rating of each horse using 37 factors for earning points and based upon actual past performances.  There is no guessing on my part here .

Wet Track: 
This shows whether a horse runs well on an off track or does not.  These numbers give you number of starts on an off track and the number of 1st and 2nd place finishes on the off track.  Be sure to also use it when races are taken off the grass for rain.

Finally, be assured that my numbers produce good results and are among the very best out there.  Some of you will do better than others, especially those that handicap using the categories along with the top Fox Powers. Just one very outstanding number may be enough for a win, learn to spot them.  If you see a horse with an E/S of 40 and no other has over 20 and is running in a sprint?  Fire away at 20-1 and you'll surprise yourself once in a while.

We can't win every day we bet and horse's don't always run according to their numbers.  They can't talk when they are ailing and we don't know the trainer's intentions.  But stick with the Fox Powers as they are the best chance of winning more and more often.  Play your instincts, racing is the only betting, aside from lotteries, where you can win just once and leave with a full pocket of $$$$.

Look For Angles That Produce Winners In Fox Powers Cards

 Conservatively speaking, I probably could fill two notebooks with horse racing systems I wrote, most of which worked quite well. So the next time you hear systems can't work you can disagree. Systems that are constructed with sound principles are a step in the right direction to many good days at the races. And systems are definitely the approach for those lacking handicapping knowledge.

At the conclusion of each day's races, I post the races under "free and past tracks". Use those races to research combinations of various Fox Powers categories in a system. You will find one that will work, trust me. Then stick with it day in and day out. In doing so, keep in mind that no one wins every day.

In your observations you may discover that horses with a total speed figure of 40, or more, and a top three Fox Powers ranking, are winning at a high percentage. Or you may discover that horses are winning that have the two highest of speed, class or consistency. So try out a few on the practice range. You just may find a world beater.

As an example, let's assume that in reviewing the races for a track, you find that one of the three highest total speed horses is winning a great percentage of the races. Next you find that of the top three highest speeds, the one with the highest class is winning the most of the three high speeds.

Or, it could be the high speed horse with the most early speed, or consistency, etc.

If you favor class and you find that one of the horses with the three highest class numbers are prevailing, you could develop a system using the three highest class horses as a basis. A system that I feel would be exceptionally good would be based upon selecting from the three highest Fox Powers and choosing the horse with the highest speed, or the highest class.