Why Has Winning Become More Difficult?
A considerable number of race fans haven't picked up on the primary reason. The answer is quite obvious to seasoned handicappers and bettors; parity in horse racing.
Before desk top and lap top computers became a common household amenity along with the new software programs, handicapping was done almost exclusively using the Daily Racing Form. Races were wide open targets for trainers entering their horses as mismatches. In a $10K claiming race, for example, you used to be able to find three or four horses that were non-contenders and eligible throw outs. The throw outs were either out classed, or very poor performers in races similar to today’s class.
Well what happened that changed all of this? Oddly enough, the same changes that were made to create parity in the NFL. The NFL decided to even the playing field as much as possible. In comparison, the same $10K claimer race that existed years ago longer exists, know that and remember that.
Racing officials redefined the conditions for claiming races. That once $10K open claimer was transformed into specific entry requirements. As an example, races are now restricted to non-winners of two races lifetime, non-winners of two races since a certain date, or non-winners of “other than”, non winners of x dollars except for, and so on. So when wagering on restricted races keep in mind that an even money favorite doesn't really have much better credentials than any of the others in the race thanks to parity in conditions.
Look for a nice priced horse for your win selection in races with tight conditions. Take your shot with a horse that will give you a nice return even if on a place or show bet with high odds.
Ray Fox
Winner World Cup of Handicapping
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