WHY HAS WINNING AT THE RACES BECOME MORE DIFFICULT

Although a considerable number of thoroughbred racing fans haven't yet picked up on the primary reason for the article title, the answer is quite obvious to seasoned handicappers; welcome parity in horse racing.  Years ago, before computers became a common household amenity, handicapping was done almost exclusively reading the Daily Racing Form for hours. Races were wide open for smart trainers entering their horses in races where the horse was far superior to the field.  And they dared someone to claim their 6 year old. 

In a $10K claiming race, for example, you could usually find three or four horses that were non-contenders rendering them ineligible from further consideration. Such horses were either out classed or proven poor performers in races similar to today's race. So what did happen?  Oddly enough, the same leveling of the playing field made in the NFL and NBA to create parity has occurred in racing.  The NFL and the NBA created salary caps and giving the top draft picks to teams with the worst records for the current year.

In comparison, the $10K claimer that existed years ago is no longer that same 10K race. Racingsecretaries redefined the conditions for most types of claiming races. That once 10K open claimer was transformed into tightly defined conditions.  As an example, races were changed to make them as near to equal as possible.  For example, each horse in a defined race had to be a non-winner of two races lifetime, or a non-winner of two races since a certain date, or a non-winner of two races this year and so on.

So when wagering on claiming races keep in mind that an even money favorite doesn't really have much better credentials than any of the other horses in the race.  The conditions make the all close to equal.  In that case look for the best recent form or improving finishes of late.  Look for a nice priced horse as your win selection as an even money favorite in a very evenly matched field borders on rediculous.

The place to find races where fields are not evenly matched, and having standouts in them, is starter handicaps and starter allowances.  The conditions allow for a horse to be eligible based on races a few months back.  So look for the horse that improved substantially over his races he ran back a month or two ago.  Smart trainers see these spots very easily now days.

Ray Fox

www.turfrace.net

Turfrace Category Numbers Detailed

I, personally, prefer to use the category numbers in addition to the top Fox Powers.  The numbers I give the most attention after the top Fox Powers numbers are E/S, L/S, total speed and last 4 finishes.

I look at E/S and L/S a little diferently.  If a horse has 38 or higher for E/S and is a top Fox Power he gets my attention particuarly in a sprint race.  If that horse is near the bottom of the Fox Powers he does not.  Although I have seen several of the win and pay over $50, but not often enough to try making a living with them.

I look at L/S differently.  If a horse has a 38 or higher, I could care less where he is in the Fox Powers.  Don't take it the wrong way, a higher Fox Power is better, but any horse with 38 for L/S regardless of the odds and Fox Power ranking should always be on your exotics tickets.

For total speed when I see 70 or higher, and it is a top 3 Fox Power which usually will be, I don't look much further for my top horse.

Here's my take on the horse's last 4 finishes, which I feel has been a great addition to Fox Powers.  As all of you know I have been a class bettor as long as I have handicapped the races.  I've had to lighten up on class because of slot machines.  Class is no longer a single figure that you can hang your hat on.  So the last 4 finishes are important for consistency reasons.  On Belmont day, in the 12th race I picked Tasor as the value play.  He was 2nd at 18-1 behind the top Fox Power making a very nice exacta.  I listed him as a value play only because he had two wins and a 2nd in his last 4 races.

If you aren't using the category numbers you should, especially for those standout numbers I mentioned above.  Remember that the Fox Power is a horse's OVERALL rating.  So look for that single number that will give you a nice priced winner.