DON'T LOSE YOUR BET BEFORE THE RACE IS RUN!!

On Turfrace I post the major tracks that are operating each day.  And whether you go to the race track, or bet at home, simulcast is available to you.  That means you have a large selection of races to choose from for betting.  So why not bet races that give you your best chance of winning.  And I remind Turfrace members that you may find a winner just by reading the conditions of the race and using it to your advantage.

Let's review some races to give you a better feel for what I am saying.  Some of these races give you the lowest probability of winning your bet if your approach is not sound.

A.  Two year old races.  For lack of credible past performances and the fact that they are green.   All horses have a birthday on January 1st no matter which month it was born.  So a foal in January is a lot stronger and mature than one born in May.  So check the month born if you bet two year old races.

B.  Non winners of two lifetime.  I see horses bet down to even money in a race that has never won a 2nd race yet.  All have one win and in essence they are all equal unless there is a legitimate class drop.  Otherwise, go for a high odds horse here.  Or, consider betting a horse that has raced only once or twice as he hasn't proven himself a born loser yet where others may be 1 for 17, etc..  Avoid horses with 10 or more starts and only one win unless he is dropping at least 50% in class.  For exotics think about an "All" on top in this type of race.

C.  Turf races that have large fields and half having never run on the grass.  Trainers experiment here.  Don't let them do it with your money.  Just when you think you have a winner, some first timer on turf decides he loves grass and destroys the field and the logical horse.

D.  Claiming races for maidens.  These are not bad races to bet if you are selective.  Definitely lean towards any MSW running for a tag for the first time.  I consider this the biggest class drop in racing and you had better also.  Again, in maiden races avoid those with 10 or more starts and no win with the exception that he is dropping into easier company.

E.  Claiming and Allowance races.  Be careful deciding that a horse is dropping in class as he may not be.  I hear handicappers saying I have to bet the class here, "this horse is dropping from $20K to $12K".  But is he really dropping, or is he running where he should have been all along.  A $20K horse who has consistently finished far up the track in all its races is not dropping.  He has been running over his head and was never a $20K horse to begin with.  Trainers and owners don't give away a $20K horse for $10K.   Remember that every owner thinks his horse is better than it is and insists the trainer run it at a price he cannot compete.

The same is true of a horse going from allowance to claiming.  Is he dropping or is it that he never was an allowance horse to begin with.  I recall a very consistant horse at Calder who could have won 15 allowance races.  His owner refused to let the trainer run him in anything but stakes races.  Such a shame, the horse   was a very good allowance horse.

F.  Starter handicaps.  Great races to bet and easy ones to win.  Again look at the conditions then look for and an improving horse over the last 4 or 5 races.  If the conditions say a horse is eligible if it ran for $5K in the past xxx days he meets the conditions.  And he is presently running well for $25K, you have a probable winner.  You are getting a $25K horse competing against $5K horses.  There may be more than one of these standouts so box them.  A novice handicapper will probably base his selection on a horse that
show good races of late, but for $5K.

So always read the race conditions and use them to your advantage.  Looking at what horses are allowed to be entered will help you win more and more often.  Trainers are smart, they enter a horse where it has an advantage over competition.  Remember he gets 10% of the winner's purse.

Ray Fox
www.turfrace.net

Do You Change Your Mind

DO YOU CHANGE YOUR TICKETS?

Some good advice for those of you that make a last minute change, and no one is more guilty of it than me.  If you decide at a last minute to change a selection, it's like BLACK MAGIC.  The change leads to disaster almost every time.  You can almost count on it.

On Friday I was about to bet a superfecta at an off'shore site.  I was watching TVG at the time and listened one of their their "analysts" critique a race.  When you watch TVG look at them as entertainers than handicappers.  He kept talking and talking about the 8 horse.  I decided to take a look at my numbers and he did have the highest class and was taking money from 12-1 to 6-1.  So I removed the 9 horse from the top spot and put the 8 on top with 3 other horses.  You guessed it, the 8 didn't hit the board and the 9 horse won at 18-1.  I always mute those "analysts" and why I didn't, I don't know.  Make a long story short I threw away a $15,861 super payoff. 

MORAL OF THE STORY; DO AS I SAY NOT AS I DO.  NEVER CHANGE A TICKET, JUST ADD TO IT AND PAY THE EXTRA $$$ OR MOST OF THE TIME YOU WILL PAY DEARLY.