THE SPA AT SARATOGA

Monday, March 4, 2013

THOROUGHBRED HANDICAPPING WITH FOX POWERS

A member asked me what regular approach I take each day when betting my Fox Powers.  Here is my personal approach to how I select horses to bet each day.  If you are currently betting with Fox Powers it may improve your $$$ performance at the races..

First, I select 2 tracks only for a day.  Everyone has favorite tracks so bet at the 2 tracks you like.  When there is a bad race at one of the 2 tracks, I go to the other track.  I bet about 14 races each day because there are usually, for various reasons, 5-6 races that put you at a large disadvantage.  The 5-6 races I eliminate because of too many unknowns are those with more than two 1st time starters. If one or both first timers are 5-1 or less I skip the race.

 When I first glance at the Fox Power race card, the first thing that catches my eye are horses with a double digit number in every category accross the board.  That horse is a strong horse no matter where in the Fox Power order it stands.

Next I look for horses with a very high total speed number and supporting factors to back it up such as, High E/S if a sprint, or a C for class drop, 3 or more LDR's and reasonable finishes in its last 4 races.  If a horse has not been in the $$$ in its last 4 races he has to have a "C" under alerts for a class drop, or I will not consider the horse. The consistency is very very important in the selection process.  Some horses run well almost always and some rarely finish in the money.

Then I focus on the top 4 Fox Powers since 65% of the time one of the top 3 win the race on average.  And 67% of the time the top Fox Power will be 1st, 2nd, or 3rd on average.

Then I look for any horse with a single outstanding high number in one of the categories that is high enough to make the horse win despite low numbers elswhere.  So always look for a horse with an LDR for a category that is a high early line odds horse.  For example, a horse with a 38 for ES in a 5F- 5 1/2 F race is a horse you must take seriously no matter where he is in the Fox Power ranking order.  If such a horse is a top 4 Fox Power you better take him very seriously.

Horses that run in the $$$ in 3 or all of its past 4 races are horses you can assume will likely repeat those performances.  They will usually be around the leaders at the finish line. Conversely, horses with bad last 4 finishes will probably finish up the track unless dropping in class.
As long as I can remember, closers have always prevailed in turf races over one mile, one mile being boarderline.  Using a speed horse on the grass is risky as one or more horses will probably press the pace and hurt the speed horse.  So make sure it is lone speed if you select a speed horse on grass.

Last, in cheap claiming races don't look for a closer to use as a key horse.  Cheap claiming horses don't close very often for the win position despite what you see in its past performances.  The E/S horse in a cheap race will give you many more winners than a closer.

All of the categories in the Fox Powers race card are very well explained. Try my method of selection with Fox Powers, I believe you will select more winners and win more often. 

RAY FOX IS A PROFESSIONAL THOROUGHBRED HANDICAPPER FOR WWW.TURFRACE.NET
AND AUTHOR OF THOROUGHBRED ARTICLES THAT HELP THOROUGHBRED RACING FANS NATIONWIDE.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

WHAT YOU GET WITH WWW.TURFRACE.NET

Turfrace has grown very rapidly to over 700 members and for a reason; accurate detailed racing information.  My ultimate goal, naturally, is to make money.  But nothing excites me more than when my members have a big day along with me and write to me about their day.  

Turfrace is more of a club for members than a website selling racing reports.  There is no other racing website on the internet where you can ask a question, have a problem with an order, or just plain correspond with the handicapper, etc. and get an answer within an hour or two.  And from the guy in charge himself I might add. 

Many times I will take half an hour to answer a single handicapping question for a member.  Try getting that on another racing site?  They email you that they will get back to you in 24 hours and many times they never do. 

In the many years that Turfrace has been on the internet it has never had a single member payment dispute.  In fact, I often notify a member that he or she has mistakenly over paid or ordered twice.

Quite frequently I give free days.  And I do it for all members, including those that have never purchased a Turfrace product which is unfortunate for those members.  The reason, if you are betting the races, there is no more informative racing information anywhere than Fox Powers.

Believe it, or don't believe it, Ray Fox makes his living betting, not from selling Fox Powers on Turfrace.net.  There have been occasions when I have hit $25,000 supers on back to back days which makes selling Fox Powers kind of small.  Still, do I like selling Fox Powers for just $25.95 a month, not really.  Compared to the $5 a day for the DRF, they are far too inexpensive for the detail you get and the results.  Sorry, but if you can’t win with Fox Powers you have a problem with your methodology.

In an effort to get more members I added sports.  But I added the sports, for members and myself, only because I know I have access to someone's bets that is one of the best in the Country.  He's someone who is more than just proficient.  In six weeks he has yet to have a losing week in total.

Whether it's Turfrace or not, deal with sites that look at you as a person, a partner, not just some account number.